Every site has a fantasy football rankings column. None of them will be as charted up on a Thursday afternoon as this one. I'll go position-by-position with the charts, matchup notes, film, and injury nuggets that I view as worth your time. I also have my recap column where I have quick notes on the top 200 players' usage and film, in addition to their expected half PPR points based on their usage. Here is the data:
Week 6 QB Rankings
1. Josh Allen - Bills vs. NYG (29.25 points, -14.0 spread)
Offenses facing the Giants are choosing to pass the ball in neutral situations at the 2nd-highest rate, and New York is 29th in passing EPA allowed. This is an "eruption spot" with rookie CBs defending Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on the perimeter. Allen's long-term fantasy appeal is higher with his own defense heading to IR. CB1 Tre'Davious White, LB1 Matt Milano, and DT2 Daquon Jones are all out. 22.65 fantasy points in Pick'em.
2. Patrick Mahomes - Chiefs vs. DEN (29.0, -10.5)
He had 328 and 352 passing yards with 3 TDs in his games against the Broncos last year, and Denver is significantly worse on defense this year. They're dead last in passing EPA allowed and 30th against fantasy QBs. It's no surprise the Chiefs are projected for the 2nd-most points on the week. I will note there are decent winds (18 MPH) in the forecast.
3. Jalen Hurts - Eagles @ NYJ (24.0, -7.0)
So far, the Jets defense has been more average than elite. Their sack rate (23rd) and passing EPA allowed (24th) are both down. Meanwhile, Hurts' numbers are back to normal. He's the QB3 in points per game with QB7 passing EPA on the most plays per game. He also has 4 TDs on 71% of the team's inside the 5-yard line carries. 22.25 fantasy points in Pick'em.
4. Tua Tagovailoa - Dolphins vs. CAR (31.0, -13.5)
The Panthers have been a run funnel (12th in passing EPA vs. 32nd in rushing EPA allowed), but Miami has the highest team total of the week in the NFL's most innovative offense. 19.25 fantasy points in Pick'em.
5. Lamar Jackson - Ravens @ TEN (22.5, -4.0)
The Titans are 27th in passing EPA allowed and are dealing with injuries in general. Baltimore is playing a more traditional offense and Lamar is playing fairly well in it, but the WRs have to play better to reach a ceiling. For now, the Ravens have an average 22.5-point team total. He's been the QB7 to date. Pay attention to DT Jeffery Simmons (DNP Wednesday) and DT Teair Tart (DNP Wednesday) on the injury report.
6. Justin Fields - Bears vs. MIN (20.75, +2.5)
It's an interesting matchup because the Vikings have been exposed through the air this year (25th in passing EPA and 23rd vs. fantasy QBs), but they also blitz at outlier levels and the Bears have struggled against pressure. Chicago is 25th in points added per play against 5+ pass rushers this year and were 31st in success rate in 2022 (per Sports Info Solutions). Fields has DJ Moore to win isolated looks as we saw last week, but this is a big test to see Fields' development, as Minnesota also pitches 3-man rush changeups at the highest rate in the NFL, too. The betting markets have the Bears projected for 20.75 points, which is slightly below average. 19.15 fantasy points in Pick'em.
7. Justin Herbert - Chargers vs. DAL (24.5, +2.0)
A broken finger could slow down Herbert, especially against this No. 3 sack rate defense. To combat it, the Chargers could run more than normal. Offenses facing Dallas have the highest neutral run rate in the NFL, though CB1 Trevon Diggs (ACL) being out could change that moving forward. Ultimately, Herbert can get it done on mediocre play volume with the way he's playing. 19.15 fantasy points in Pick'em.
8. Matthew Stafford - Rams vs. ARI (27.75, -7.0)
The Rams have the 4th-highest team total of the week and are coming off their highest neutral pass rate of the year with Cooper Kupp in the mix. The Cardinals are 28th against fantasy QBs, 29th in passing EPA allowed, and are at least functional on offense. It's a great recipe for Stafford, who is PFF's QB8 right now. 17.05 fantasy points in Pick'em.
9. Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars vs. IND (25.0, -4.0)
In his last 3 games against the Colts, Lawrence is completing 82% of his passes on 7.6 YPA, leading to 213 passing yards and 2.3 passing TDs per game. He lit up Indy in Week 1 for a QB8 finish. On the whole, the Colts are 26th against fantasy QBs with issues throughout the secondary, allowing CJ Stroud (384-2), Matthew Stafford (319-1), and Lamar Jackson (30.2 fantasy points) to get home. It's not a surprise to see Jacksonville with the 6th-highest team total of the week. 17.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
10. Joe Burrow - Bengals vs. SEA (24.0, -3.0)
The Seahawks have allowed huge passing games from Matthew Stafford (334 yards), Jared Goff (323-3), and Andy Dalton (361-2), and Joe Burrow has deemed himself as healthy as he's been all year (and his Week 5 tape confirmed that). Tee Higgins is at least practicing, too, which is good timing with the Seahawks also adding SS Jamal Adams and stud rookie CB Devon Witherspoon to the starting lineup. 17.65 fantasy points in Pick'em.
11. Dak Prescott - Cowboys @ LAC (26.5, -2.0)
Play A Normal Game Challenge (failed). This week should be a normal game with the point spread sitting at 2 points, where the Cowboys are actually favored on the road. The Chargers defense (potentially without EDGE1 Joey Bosa) is a total mess, allowing the most fantasy points to QBs this year on No. 26 passing EPA. It's good timing to have the starting OL back to full health in this potential shootout. If not here, then it's time to start panicking on Prescott post-ankle injury. He has a career low in carries per game (2.4) and rushing yards per game (9.0) right now. 16.45 fantasy points in Pick'em.
12. Kirk Cousins - Vikings @ CHI (23.25, -2.5)
16.65 fantasy points in Pick'em.
13. Geno Smith - Seahawks @ CIN (21.0, +3.0)
LT Charles Cross (toe) was a full participant in practice. 15.65 fantasy points in Pick'em.
14. Jared Goff - Lions @ TB (23.5, -3.0)
15.95 fantasy points in Pick'em.
15. C.J. Stroud - Texans vs. NO (20.5, +1.5)
15.85 fantasy points in Pick'em.
16. Sam Howell - Commanders @ ATL (20.0, +2.5)
15.95 fantasy points in Pick'em.
17. Brock Purdy - 49ers @ CLE (22.0, -6.5)
16.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
18. Gardner Minshew - Colts @ JAX (21.0, +4.0)
19. Joshua Dobbs - Cardinals @ LAR (20.75, +7.0)
20. Baker Mayfield - Bucs vs. DET (20.0, +3.0)
21. Desmond Ridder - Falcons vs. WAS (22.5, -2.5)
22. Jimmy Garoppolo - Raiders vs. NE (22.25, -3.0)
23. Russell Wilson - Broncos @ KC (18.5, +10.5)
24. Derek Carr - Saints @ HOU (22.0, -1.5)
25. Mac Jones - Patriots @ LV (19.25, +3.0)
26. Bryce Young - Panthers @ MIA (17.5, +13.5)
27. Ryan Tannehill - Titans vs. BAL (18.5, +4.0)
28. Tyrod Taylor - Giants @ BUF (15.25, +14.0)
29. Zach Wilson - Jets vs. PHI (17.0, +7.0)
30. P.J. Walker - Browns vs. SF (15.5, +6.5)
I can't recommend looking at the RB charts I have here more.
Christian McCaffrey - The Niners' team total is down to 21.75 points in Cleveland, but CMC is the RB1 overall until proven otherwise. 17.75 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Austin Ekeler - He's 99% sure he's playing this week, and the Chargers certainly need him with Mike Williams and the backup RBs struggling. Ekeler could also benefit if Justin Herbert needs to check down more with his broken finger. Despite a difficult rushing matchup, the Chargers project for 24.5 points against the Cowboys. It's not a big concern. 15.95 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Raheem Mostert - The Dolphins are breaking records on the ground and suddenly face the worst rushing EPA defense this week (read: "Eruption Spot"). Mostert is looking for a sidekick with De'Von Achane on IR. Jeff Wilson was a co-starter last year and was paid this offseason, but he's now doubtful (ribs, pinky). Salvon Ahmed was a Week 5 healthy scratch in favor of special-teamer and big lead-blocker Chris Brooks, but Ahmed is a closer stylistic fit to Achane. Mostert played 60% snaps last week, which is already enough to be a top-5 RB with Miami projected for 31.0 points at home. If that goes to 75% due to other injuries, Mostert can break the slate. 14.95 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Tony Pollard - His efficiency has nosedived on a larger workload while coming off a severe ankle injury, but the Cowboys have the 5th-highest team total and the Chargers are 9th-worst against fantasy RBs. Pollard is a positive regression candidate (RB21 on RB4 usage over the last month) with his OL finally back to their starting lineup. 15.05 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Travis Etienne - He had both of the Jaguars' inside the 5-yard line opportunities last week, in addition to almost all of the passing-down snaps. If Tank Bigsby (PFF's RB62 of 63) is dismissed from the rotation, Etienne has a rare game script independent workload. 14.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Josh Jacobs - He's eclipsed 16.1 expected half PPR points in 4-of-5 games as one of the few remaining bellcows regardless of game script. Jacobs looked more explosive in Week 5, even if the efficiency was down by a work-in-progress OL. The Raiders have a league-average team total (22.25) while hosting the banged-up Patriots. 14.85 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Bijan Robinson - He's been the RB15 on RB18 usage over the last month with Atlanta's offense playing inconsistent ball. Robinson has been out-touched inside the 5-yard line, 4 to 2, with Tyler Allgeier still mixing in as a north-south rusher. It's a positive sign that the Falcons are 2.5-point home favorites against the Commanders. 15.85 fantasy points in Pick'em.
David Montgomery - This assumes Jahmyr Gibbs (DNP Wednesday) is out. The RB3 on RB2 usage over the last month when healthy, Montgomery has proven to have TD upside but the Lions' team total is down to 23.25 points in Tampa this week. That's the smallest red flag imaginable. It's go time again. The Bucs are PFF's worst run defense through 5 weeks. 14.25 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Kenneth Walker - He's playing out of his mind on RB10 overall usage. Seattle's 3-point spread in Cincy works against Walker's ceiling chances. 13.05 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Alvin Kamara - The RB9 on RB3 usage since returning. His inefficiency is concerning, but a neutral game script against the Texans alleviates those worries this week. In fact, offenses facing Houston run the ball in neutral situations at the 3rd-highest rates. Kendre Miller remains a garbage time only complement. 13.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
D'Andre Swift - He's the RB7 on RB7 usage over the last month, even with Kenneth Gainwell around. The Eagles, as normal, are 7-point favorites against the usually unserious Jets offense. Game script leans Swift's direction. I just wish Philly projected for more than 24.0 points. 12.85 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Isiah Pacheco - The Broncos have allowed 35.9 half PPR points per game to RBs. The 2nd-worst defense? Down at 26.5. Pacheco's usage is now up to RB12 with Clyde Edwards-Helaire playing a half dozens snaps per game.
Kyren Williams - He played 84% snaps last week, and the Rams have the 4th-highest team total of the week as 7-point favorites against the Cardinals. Thanks to TDs, Kyren is the RB8 on RB9 usage over the last month. Adding Cooper Kupp to the mix chops off some of his ceiling, however. 12.85 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Derrick Henry - Tyjae Spears is getting fun sidekick usage at the expense of Henry, who is only the RB16 in fantasy usage over the last month. The Titans are 4.5-point home dogs to the Ravens, who are 1-of-6 defenses to not allow a rushing TD to a RB this year. Baltimore is also only allowing 3.8 YPC to RBs. It's a tough matchup for the Big Dog. At least 1st-round OG Peter Skoronski (appendix) is back.
James Cook - Eliminated from the game plan due to game script last week, Cook is in a bounce back spot as 14-point home favorites against the Giants, who are 29th against fantasy RBs while allowing a ludicrous 5.3 YPC. Cook will need the big play to pay off with his inside the 5-yard line opportunities usually going to Latavius Murray and Damien Harris. 12.05 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Joe Mixon - It's on brand for Mixon to be the RB20 on RB8 usage over the last month of the year. The Bengals short-yardage rushing is hurt by Burrow's inability to go under center right now. That said, the Bengals look way better now (24.25 projected points). 11.45 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Breece Hall - He saw a season-high 19.1 expected half PPR points in a rare Jets win last week, while distancing himself from Dalvin Cook completely. New York is still on Full Blown Incompetence Watch, especially with stud OG Alijah Vera-Tucker (achilles) on IR, LT Duane Brown on IR, and OT Mekhi Becton banged up. That's bad timing against an Eagles defensive line that has DROY candidate Jalen Carter looking as advertised. Philly is 3rd against fantasy RBs, with only Brian Robinson (11.1 half PPR) reaching even 9.0 fantasy points this year. 10.95 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Brian Robinson - Cancelled via game script again in Week 5, Robinson is in a neutral at best spot against the Falcons, who are 2nd-best against fantasy RBs while ranking 1st in rushing EPA allowed. As long as the game stays close (2.5-point road dogs), Robinson should handle 14-22 tough opportunities. Washington is back to a 20.0-point team projection. 9.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Rachaad White - Coming off the bye, White is the RB11 in usage but just the RB18 in production. The Bucs are at home against a Lions defense that's best against fantasy RBs on 3.2 YPC. Only Kenneth Walker (17.4 half PPR) has cleared 6.1 fantasy points against Detroit. 10.25 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Alexander Mattison - The Bears are 3rd-worst against fantasy RBs, but Mattison's role is diminishing with Cam Akers playing more. He only played 51% snaps last week, leading to just 8.3 expected half PPR points. We'll see if the Vikings run more without Justin Jefferson, though that very likely means fewer red zone drives, too. 11.35 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Dameon Pierce - The Saints are allowing 3.4 YPC to RBs, leading to the No. 3 unit against fantasy RBs. Pierce's inefficiencies have continued, though the Texans did return LT Laremy Tunsil and RT Tytus Howard to the starting lineup last week. Pierce remains game script dependent, after running just 10-of-36 routes. Houston at least is 1st in neutral run rate. In theory, Pierce is the identity of the offense on RB15 fantasy usage. 9.05 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Chuba Hubbard - Miles Sanders (shoulder) is out, leaving Hubbard as the starter with change-of-pace RB Raheem Blacksheer as the backup. Hubbard will have an upside RB2 workload, especially in full PPR, while in garbage time mode. The Panthers starting RB is averaging 12.6 expected half PPR points (but not playing efficiently). 8.75 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Rhamondre Stevenson - With the Patriots completely bottoming out, Stevenson checks in as the RB26 in usage over the last month. On top of that, Stevenson doesn't look like himself. He's the only RB with 65+ carries without a 15+ yard run, which has been his bread and butter. The good news is New England's schedule opens up a bit, starting with the Raiders this week. 8.55 fantasy points in Pick'em.
D'Onta Foreman - Khalil Herbert (ankle), Roschon Johnson (concussion), and Travis Homer (hamstring) are out. Foreman is a capable early-down rusher, with Darrynton Evans available on passing downs. The Bears as a whole are dead last in RB fantasy usage over the last month, so keep expectations in check regardless. The Vikings are a neutral matchup. 8.55 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Zack Moss - 56.5 total yards in Pick'em. See RB26 Jonathan Taylor.
Jonathan Taylor - I'll simply be following the news, as Taylor was held to 10 snaps in his debut. He didn't look bad on film, but neither did Zack Moss who is the RB6 on RB6 usage over the last month. The Colts can afford to ease JT back into game shape with the way Moss is running. For now, I expect a near 50-50 timeshare. The initial report last week is that Taylor will be eased in over the next month. 55.5 total yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Allgeier - 45.5 total yards in Pick'em. See RB7 Bijan Robinson.
Keaontay Ingram - The Cardinals want a run-first identity, and Ingram's size (6'0/220) and style is better suited for that north-south early-down role compared to UDFA rookie Emari Demercado (5'9/215), who I think is a patient finesse player best suited for passing downs. Neither are difference makers in the NFL (like Conner is), and Arizona only projected for 20.75 points against the Rams. The unofficial depth chart lists Ingram as the starter. 27.5 rushing yards in Pick'em.
Justice Hill - This is a committee with Hill on passing downs and Gus Bus on early downs. Baltimore's 22.75-point team total isn't high enough to get optimistic about either, especially with Lamar handling an NFL high in QB designed runs and the Titans typically elite against fantasy RBs. Hill and Edwards are back-to-back in fantasy usage at RB35 and RB36.
Gus Edwards - See RB33 Justice Hill.
Jerome Ford - Cleveland projects for 13.25 points vs. SF with Deshaun Watson (DNP on Wednesday) still dealing with a shoulder injury. It won't be pretty with P.J. Walker against the Niners. 7.85 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Saquon Barkley (Questionable) - A full week of limited practices while coming off a high ankle sprain is a scary proposition, especially with Daniel Jones, LT Andrew Thomas, C John Michael-Schmitz, and fill-in OT Matt Peart ruled out. RT Evan Neal, OG Shane Lemieux, and Darren Waller are also questionable. New York is projected for just 14.25 points against the Bills. If Barkley can't go, Matt Breida and Eric Gray will split duties.
Emari Demercado - 8.05 fantasy points in Pick'em. See RB32 Keaontay Ingram.
Salvon Ahmed - 36.5 total yards in Pick'em. See RB3 Raheem Mostert.
Chris Brooks - See RB3 Raheem Mostert.
Jaleel McLaughlin - Javonte Williams was a full participant and could make this a 3-RB committee. McLaughlin profiles as a low-volume explosive pass-catcher for Sean Payton, who has succeeded with his archtype many times before. The Broncos are just so bad on offense.
Tyjae Spears - See RB14 Derrick Henry.
Cam Akers - See RB20 Alexander Mattison.
Latavius Murray - See RB15 James Cook.
Jerick McKinnon - See RB13 Isiah Pacheco.
Zach Charbonnet - See RB8 Kenneth Walker.
Ezekiel Elliott - See RB22 Rhamondre Stevenson.
Kenneth Gainwell - See RB11 D'Andre Swift.
Javonte Williams - See RB36 Jaleel McLaughlin.
Samaje Perine - See RB36 Jaleel McLaughlin.
Antonio Gibson - See RB19 Brian Robinson.
Tyreek Hill - 86.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Cooper Kupp - 85.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Stefon Diggs - The Giants start rookie CBs on the perimeter, so it's time to feast again. In fact, offenses facing New York have the 2nd-highest neutral pass rate because of the secondary issues. 81.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Ja'Marr Chase - This assumes Tee Higgins (limited x2) plays. He'll see some rookie CB Devon Witherspoon, which will be fun TV but nothing to really sweat for fantasy. 84.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
CeeDee Lamb - The Chargers are last against fantasy WRs and just traded CB J.C. Jackson. They'll also likely be without Joey Bosa (DNP Wednesday).
Keenan Allen - He's the WR6 on WR3 usage over the last month, and the Chargers could be trailing at home. 78.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Offenses facing the Bucs have the 3rd-highest neutral pass rate if he's actually healthy. He kicked off the week with a limited practice (abs). 73.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
A.J. Brown - He'll see some Sauce Gardner (illness). 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Davante Adams - The Patriots are starting backups at all CB spots, but Bill Belichick is notorious for bracket coverage on true No. 1 WRs. Adams has admitted that his shoulder injury is legit, which corresponds with a rare down game in Week 5 (season low 6.3 expected half PPR). 72.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Puka Nacua - 30% targets, 13.7 expected half PPR with Kupp in Week 5. That'll do with the Rams projected for the 4th-most points of the week. He'll see a 6th-round rookie CB in coverage this week. 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Calvin Ridley - In Week 1 against these Colts, Ridley had an 8-101-1 line on 34% targets while winning downfield. It helps that Zay Jones (DNP Wednesday) could miss. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaylen Waddle - His usage has dropped this year, likely because the Dolphins' ground game has taken over and Tyreek Hill is at the top of his game. Without Achane, Waddle's spot in the pecking order rises and he's a positive regression candidate for the first time in awhile after seeing 4 end zone targets last week. This has been the best spot for him all season long. Buy if you can. 61.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Mike Evans - A full practice on Friday (hamstring) gives me confidence that he's truly ready coming off the bye. He's the WR9 in usage on the year and playing really well on tape. The Lions are a solid matchup on the perimeter, with CB Emmanuel Moseley, nickel CB Brian Branch, and S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson ruled out. 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Adam Thielen - Don't get mad at me. He's the WR9 on WR7 usage over the last month, and the Panthers are 13.5-point dogs in inevitable garbage time. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DJ Moore - The Bears had their highest neutral pass rate of the year last week because of isolated matchups for DJM, and this week could be similar. The Vikings are dangerous with their blitzing and don't have the isolated CBs to win consistently. Moore has long TD appeal again, though Fields has really struggled against pressure throughout his NFL career. It'll be a great sign if this duo can handle this unique Brian Flores defense. 59.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Marquise Brown - He's the WR16 on WR12 usage over the last month, and the Cardinals may go more pass heavy without identity RB James Conner. It's a good spot here, as 7.0-point home dogs to the inexperienced Rams defense. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Christian Kirk - He's been the WR19 on WR14 usage over the last month with Zay Jones (DNP Wednesday) in and out of the lineup. Kirk being back in 2-WR sets is a big win. This is a nice matchup against the beatable Colts secondary. 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Pittman - From Rotoworld's Denny Carter: "His 34.2 percent first-read target rate is the 11th highest among receivers this season and his 41 first-read targets is a top-7 mark among wideouts." 60.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jakobi Meyers - He's the WR12 in usage throughout the year, and the Patriots have CBs Christian Gonzalez, Jack Jones, and Marcus Jones on IR. If Belichick brackets Adams, Meyers should have great looks. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jordan Addison - He's coming off a season-high 14.9 expected half PPR points with Justin Jefferson injured, and the coaches have indicated K.J. Osborn will move into the more difficult X receiver role. I love that for Addison, as he needs more free releases to hide his size. With some space to operate, he's cooking. In fact, Addison is the WR5 in EPA per target. He'll be near the top of the list in routes run this week, as both Osborn and Jefferson are already top-10 in the category so far. 54.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
DK Metcalf - Bengals CB1 Chidobe Awuzie (back) is on the injury report, and Cincy hasn't faced a big bodied alpha WR this season yet. Metcalf is not getting the same volume as normal this season, but he's still projected for 62.5 receiving yards in Pick'em. Per Sumer Sports' Tej Seth: "The Seahawks have been the best team in the league out of 12 personnel this season while the Bengals have been the 29th best defense at defending 12 personnel looks."
Deebo Samuel - He's off the injury report completely and should factor in against a dangerous pass rush (No. 2 sack rate) as an easy short-yardage outlet. Cleveland is 1st in passing EPA allowed. 55.5 total yards in Pick'em.
DeVonta Smith - He's been the WR19 per game since 2022 including the NFL Playoffs, and he's the WR58 in usage over the last month. A ranking this high is a credit to his explosive skillset. The Jets have been the 2nd-best defense against fantasy WRs, too. 51.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Nico Collins - No Tank Dell (concussion), but the Saints have a legit CB1 in Marshon Lattimore and are 11th-best against fantasy WRs. This is a great barometer of where Collins is as a player. I think he's good. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gabe Davis - This is an "eruption spot", so I'll be on highers with this 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em. The Giants start two rookie CBs on the perimeter and are 28th against 12-personnel per Sumer Sports' Tej Seth.
DeAndre Hopkins - Treylon Burks (knee) is likely out, and Hopkins is averaging 13.2 expected half PPR points in his 3 healthy games. It's just a difficult matchup with CB1 Marlon Humphrey and the Ravens secondary. This will be a low play volume game. 57.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Olave - Since 2022, Olave is the WR31 in half PPR points per game. He's at least the WR19 in usage over the last month, but the Saints can go very conservative, especially against run funnels. The Texans defense is allowing the highest neutral run rate in the NFL. 56.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zay Flowers - He's struggled on WR24 fantasy usage, but Flowers is the best Ravens WR with the others struggling even more. The Titans are the biggest pass funnel in the NFL, too. 55.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandon Aiyuk - He'll get CB1 Denzel Ward, who headlines the No. 1 fantasy WR defense right now. Aiyuk is also efficient, but he is the WR42 in usage over the last month removing injuries. 43.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Chris Godwin - This assumes Mike Evans is back at full capacity. Godwin happens to be a positive regression candidate with TDs, and the Lions are missing 3 starters in the secondary.
Jerry Jeudy - 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tee Higgins (Questionable) - He had a full practice on Friday but will likely need an injection to play.
Garrett Wilson - The Eagles (29th against fantasy WRs) have allowed the 7 WRs to eclipse 60+ yards already, as many offenses give up rushing against this DL quickly. Offenses facing Philly have the 6th-highest neutral pass rate. 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Joshua Palmer - In 12 games with 75% snaps or more dating back to last year, Palmer is averaging 5.25 receptions and 63 receiving yards. 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Lockett - Yards per route: 2022 (1.9), 2023 (1.3). Plus a career low 5.8 yards per target. That's something to monitor in his age-31 season. 50.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Drake London - Did you watch the A.J. Brown and D.J. Moore tape recently? The Commanders outside CBs are in absolute hell right now. Desmond Ridder is also coming off his best game of the year. 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Courtland Sutton - 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Michael Thomas - He's a positive regression candidate with TDs, if he's healthy enough to realize it. Thomas is the WR36 in usage over the last month. The Texans have been good against fantasy WRs, though are still missing CB1 Derek Stingley. 49.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Terry McLaurin - He'll see some CB1 A.J. Terrell, who has helped stop opposing outside WR1s. Adam Thielen (12 yards), Romeo Doubs (30), Josh Reynolds (0), Calvin Ridley (38), and Nico Collins (39) all struggled. 53.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Robert Woods - The WR31 in usage, and he's had 12.5 & 12.4 expected half PPR points without Tank Dell (concussion). 40.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
K.J. Osborn - He had a season-high 12.5 expected half PPR in Week 5 without Justin Jefferson and has been the WR56 in usage on WR5 routes. They're putting him at X receiver, which is the hardest spot to line up, and I don't believe in Osborn as a major difference maker. 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tutu Atwell - 14% targets, 8.4 expected half PPR points with Kupp. It's a great matchup as a team.
Amari Cooper - This assumes P.J. Walker is starting, as the Browns team total has dropped to 13.5 points. 41.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Quentin Johnston - Post Bye Rookie Bump Candidate. He ran a route on 23-of-33 dropbacks last game without Mike Williams. Johnston is very much in development as a player, but all it takes is one big play with his athleticism attached to Herbert, especially in a potential shootout vs. Dallas.
Josh Reynolds - A road game with Amon-Ra St. Brown returning to the lineup work against Round 18 Reynolds. 35.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kadarius Toney - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashee Rice - 29.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Josh Downs - 42.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Brandin Cooks
DeVante Parker - 38.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kendrick Bourne - 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jahan Dotson - 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Curtis Samuel - 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Post Bye Rookie Bump Candidate, just less so.
Wan'Dale Robinson
Michael Wilson
DJ Chark - 30.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Rashid Shaheed - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonathan Mingo - 28.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darnell Mooney
Tyler Boyd - This assumes Tee Higgins is back.
Michael Gallup
Jameson Williams
Marvin Mims - 20.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Skyy Moore - 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 18.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Justin Watson - 24.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Elijah Moore
Darius Slayton
Rondale Moore
Travis Kelce (Questionable) - He was DNP-limited-limited in practice on a low-ankle sprain. Kelce hasn't been the same on a per-route basis so far this year while playing through different injuries in his age-34 season. That said, he still has 10-target paths attached to a GOAT QB and is the TE1 in both production and usage per game. 64.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
T.J. Hockenson - He's the TE2 in usage already with Justin Jefferson (27% targets). The Bears have allowed the 4th-most receptions to the position. 10.25 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Mark Andrews - The TE3 on TE3 usage, partly because the Ravens WRs have flopped. The Titans have been a notorious pass funnel.
Sam LaPorta (Questionable) - The starting WR group is back, and the Lions are down to 23.25 projected points on the road. It's not as juicy of a spot as it's been, but LaPorta is the TE6 in usage and has looked the part in every way on tape. 8.55 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Evan Engram - He's the TE2 in routes run, but a likely Zay Jones return hurts his target share. The Colts are 8th in receptions and yards to TEs. 44.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dallas Goedert - A boom week was needed and a reminder that Goedert is the TE3 in routes if he's actually targeted. This week, the Jets have allowed the most fantasy points to TEs. 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
George Kittle - He's only the TE22 in usage, but last week was the latest example of big plays and TDs providing a random spike week. Kittle's TD odds are lowered in Cleveland with the 49ers' team total sitting at just 22.25 points. It's possible Kittle needs to block more with DPOY candidate Myles Garrett looming. The Browns have allowed 3 receptions per game to the position. 8.95 fantasy points in Pick'em.
Jake Ferguson - He's the TE12 on TE13 usage over the last 4 weeks, but the Cowboys haven't played a normal game. That should change against the Chargers, who allowed an 8-78-0 line to T.J. Hockenson already this year. 36.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kyle Pitts - Over the last month, Pitts is the TE4 in usage as the deep threat TE in the Falcons' No. 1 TE usage offense. Pitts' downfield opportunities make him boom-bust on a weekly basis while he battles a lingering knee injury. 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Darren Waller (Questionable) - He has a new groin injury coming off a season-high 13.6 expected half PPR points. Waller was used in 3x1 sets, option routes, and other fun things last week out of desperation. The Giants just happen to have the lowest team total this week. 39.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Logan Thomas - He's the TE5 in usage and even Cole Turner popped up in his absence, as new OC Eric Bieniemy spreads the ball around. Atlanta has allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points to TEs, including big games to Hayden Hurst (5-41-1), Sam LaPorta (8-84-1), Evan Engram (7-59-0), and Dalton Schultz (7-65-1). 37.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Zach Ertz - He's the TE12 in usage and just ran 30-of-36 routes last week. The Rams have allowed the 4th-most receptions, and the Cardinals may lean more pass heavy without James Conner. Ertz is best in full PPR leagues. 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dawson Knox - This assumes Dalton Kincaid won't be able to clear concussion protocol in time, and that Knox's wrist injury won't effect his playing time. More on this later.
Cole Kmet - He's running pure on TE14 usage, but the Bears neutral pass rate is up from 38% to 47%. The Vikings have allowed 6+ receptions to 3 different TEs already, too. 34.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Hunter Henry - He's the TE5 in routes run, so Henry just needs the offense to wake up. The schedule opens up against the Raiders this week. 32.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Dalton Schultz - He's coming off a season-high 13.1 expected half PPR points, moving him to TE11 in usage. No Tank Dell helps Schultz's target share, though New Orleans is the only defense to not allow 100 total yards to TEs this season. That's insane. 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Tyler Higbee - The TE leader in routes run, but he's a distant target with Cooper Kupp back in the mix. He's the TE15 in usage right now. That said, the Rams have the 4th-highest team total of the week. 33.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Jonnu Smith - He has 7.6 or more expected half PPR points in 4-straight games, while operating as a traditional underneath target. Jonnu ran a route on 68% of dropbacks last week in a neutral game script. He's on the radar. 31.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Gerald Everett - This assumes Donald Parham (wrist) is out. More on this later. 25.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Hayden Hurst - Garbage time can be nice this week. He's the TE10 in routes. 23.5 receiving yards in Pick'em.
Kylen Granson - He's had between 5.3 and 7.6 expected half PPR points in every week. Steady Eddy, especially with a non-dual threat QB right now.
Tyler Conklin - He's the TE15 on TE17 usage over the last month.
Cade Otton - This assumes Mike Evans (DNP Wednesday) is out.
Durham Smythe - 29-of-32 routes in Week 5.
Chigoziem Okonkwo - Struggling. Now gets the Ravens LBs.
Taysom Hill - Not needed with Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, and Derek Carr.
David Njoku (Questionable) - The burns were really bad.
Mike Gesicki - The TE30 in routes.
Noah Gray - Deserves a rank with Kelce limping around.
Michael Mayer - Use Your 2nd Round Pick Challenge, Raiders.
The fantasy football defenses of Week 5 are the Bills (vs. NYG), 49ers (@ CLE), Eagles (@ NYJ), Ravens (@ TEN), Dolphins (vs. CAR), Chiefs (vs. DEN), Falcons (vs. WAS), and Raiders (vs. NE).
Jk. I'm not a virgin.
To me, this is the most beatable DFS game out there, as drafters too often go off the default rankings. Simply add one or two players who are commonly undrafted to get a unique DFS team. And of course, stack. I truly believe my readers/followers would enjoy the game theory (and the edge) of this contest.
